The theme of Game 4 remains very much the same as it was in Game 3. Florida needs to dictate the pace and get their shot opportunities off in order to make this a series. Winning Game 3 is great, but they know they can't head back to Vegas down 3-1.
Whether they do or not remains to be seen, but I am confident projecting a better dose of SOG than we saw on Thursday. The play here focuses in on some of the most reliable options this Florida team offers.
Sam Bennett is not included here, I bet him straight already, so there's a bonus play for you. I like his over straight at 3.5; these others I prefer down at three rather than four.
We're on FanDuel here for this play. The downside to FanDuel's horrible SGP market is that these shots are limited to regulation. One of the names here did get his third shot last game in OT. It's the risk we run, but with so few options available to us in the alt-SOG market, I've resigned myself to taking what I can get.
Matthew Tkachuk 3+ shots
Tkachuk finished Game 3 with three shots, including the game-tying goal late in the third. This despite him missing a decent chunk of the game after taking a big hit early in the first period.
Tkachuk has now finished with 3+ shots in two straight games this series and five of eight this postseason at home. I liked Tkachuk's over 3.5 last game because of his stated desire to get the puck more and shoot at a higher clip.
Those ended up being slightly empty words, though again the injury had something to do there. At minimum, I'm safely projecting Tkachuk to finish with 4+ shot attempts.
When the Florida star has that volume on his side, he finished with 3+ shots at an 87% clip this season.
Brandon Montour 3+ shots
What is there to say about Montour? He's been rolling. He's finished with three, five and three SOG thus far this series against Vegas, piling up 24 shot attempts in the process.
Montour is one I am safely expecting at least 6+ attempts from. He averages 6.8 attempts per game this postseason and has finished with 6+ in five straight games against Vegas.
With that volume in tow, the Florida defenseman finishes with at least 3+ shots at an 82% rate.
Carter Verhaeghe 3+ shots
Now, Verhaeghe did finish with three shots last game, but unfortunately his third was the OT goal that delivered the Panthers a win. We're going to need him to find three in regulation, and I'm confident he can pull it off.
The volume is there, seeing at least five shot attempts in all three games this series and averaging 5.8 attempts per game at home during this playoff run.
Games in which Verhaeghe finished with 5+ attempts, 3+ SOG accompanied that volume 81% of the time.
Together, this parlay comes in at +212 on FanDuel, and I'll be wagering a full unit on it hitting tonight.
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